In Episode 7 of A Heavy Weight, we walked through the day Joseph Smedley’s body was found, and the details of his first autopsy and toxicology reports. Episode 8, Less Than One Percent, picks up exactly where we left off. This time, we step back and ask a harder question. How likely is it that Joseph really died by suicide in the way the official reports suggest?
To begin to answer that, I turned to one of the few studies that focuses specifically on suicide by drowning, a twenty year review from the Dallas metropolitan area. Out of 6082 suicides over two decades, less than one percent only point eight five percent were suicides by drowning. In other words, even in a large urban area with many bodies of water, suicide by drowning is rare.
When we place Joseph’s case in that context, it becomes even more unusual. The study found that suicidal drownings were most often associated with large bodies of water, more common among white individuals, and more likely to involve people who were not under the influence at the time of death. Joseph was a young Black man found in a small Indiana lake, under the influence, far from any coastline. Statistically, he fits one of the least likely profiles for one of the least likely forms of suicide.
Bodies recovered from water are notoriously difficult to interpret. There is no single test that can prove a person drowned. Forensic pathologists instead piece together information from autopsy findings, toxicology, the scene, witness accounts, and the person’s life. In this episode, I return to two experts you met in Episode 7 forensic pathologist Dr Darin Wolfe and forensic aquatic death investigator ‘Andrea Zaferes to help us understand what can and cannot be known from the evidence in Joseph’s case.
Together, we walk through the major questions. Were there classic signs of drowning inside Josephs body Could he have died before he entered the water. Are there injuries that might suggest trauma or foul play Could anything about the way his body was found including the backpack and its contents help us tell the difference between a suicide and an attempt to hide a body.
The autopsy report does not show obvious signs of homicidal violence. At the same time, it also does not include some of the features that would make drowning a clear slam dunk determination. There were no x rays taken. Scene photos from the day Joseph was recovered have not been made available for independent review. And when a second pathologist attempted a follow up autopsy months later, he documented a deep intramuscular hematoma in Joseph’s back that had not been noted the first time. No one can say with certainty whether that finding points to foul play, a fall, or something else.
Another layer of confusion comes from Joseph’s cell phone activity. The pings we know about show his phone near downtown Bloomington around 4 15 in the morning, then near Griffy Lake about thirty minutes later, and later still near Old State Road 37. His body was eventually found on the opposite side of the lake from one of those pings, and his phone was recovered separately from him. Given Joseph’s level of intoxication, that timeline raises a troubling question how did he get to the lake, and was he alone.
None of this proves that Joseph was killed by someone else. It also does not prove that he died by suicide. What it does show is that the evidence is not nearly as clear cut as the official ruling suggests. After reviewing the reports, Dr Wolfe shares that he himself would likely have classified the manner of death as undetermined. For Joseph’s family, that word can feel like its own kind of burden. It keeps the possibility of foul play open, but it also acknowledges the simple truth there is not enough information to draw a firm conclusion.
Joseph’s body was cremated after the attempted second autopsy, so some questions will never be answered. But there is still more we could learn. Joseph’s phone may still be in evidence. The note found by his roommates could be analyzed by a handwriting expert. Scene photographs from the lake and the original autopsy could answer basic questions about his body and the environment around him. Even the knot that secured his backpack to his body could be examined by a knot specialist to see what it reveals about who might have tied it.
This episode is also the beginning of a wider conversation about whose cases receive attention and care. Joseph was a Black Indiana University student whose disappearance and death received very little media coverage. For five days, he was missing. It took weeks for his cause of death to be made public. As his sister Vivianne points out, it is hard not to imagine how differently things might have unfolded if Joseph had been a white woman in a sorority.
Joseph’s family has waited more than ten years for clear answers. Less Than One Percent is not an attempt to solve his case from the outside. It is an invitation to look honestly at what we know, what we do not know, and what could still be done. If someone in Bloomington remembers something about the night of September 27th into the early morning hours of September 28th, if anyone at BPD or IUPD is willing to revisit the evidence or speak on the record, this is an open call.
Content note
This episode discusses suicide, death, and possible foul play. If you are struggling, you are not alone. Consider reaching out to someone you trust or to a crisis support line in your area. In the United States, you can reach the Suicide and Crisis Lifeline by calling or texting 988.
If you have information about Joseph Smedleys case or wish to share a tip, please contact the Bloomington Police Department or reach out through the contact form on our website so that we can help connect you.
